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China drags on global cement consumption growth

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World Cement,

China will be a drag on global cement consumption growth between 2017 and 2022, according to new analysis from CW Group, as the country focuses on eliminated overcapacity. Including China, global growth in cement consumption will total 2.2% per year on average, but this increases to an average of 3.9% per year when China is excluded.

China is home to some 56% of global cement production capacity, but is a market marred by overcapacity. As a result, the Chinese government has been driving industry rationalisation, last year merging two of the largest Chinese cement makers, CNBM and Sinoma to form the world’s largest cement maker.

CW Group expects 280 million t of capacity to be eliminated in China to 2022, counterbalancing capacity expansions in the rest of Asia and Africa.

Excluding China, Asia will be the fastest growing region on the back of expansion on the Indian subcontinent. The US, Russia, and Western Europe are also showing better momentum, as better macroeconomic conditions in these regions drive construction activity.

“The global picture in terms of cement demand points out towards a more positive future,” said Robert Maderia, CW Group’s Managing Director and Head of Research.

“Markets that have resurrected from the ashes, such as Spain and Russia, are pushing the markets forwards. Towards the end of the forecast period, we expect overall mild positive growth, with markets that are now wild cards making hefty steps towards stability.”

Cement consumption is expected to hit 4.7 billion t by 2022. Cement production capacity stood at 5.5 billion tpy in 2017.

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