The Portland Cement Association (PCA) has released its forecast for US cement consumption in 2013 and 2014. This year, consumption is estimated to rise by 4.5% y/y to almost 80 million t. In 2014, y/y growth is expected to increase to 8.1%, with consumption predicted to reach 86 million t. Edward Sullivan, PCA Group Vice President and Chief Economist, believes that pent-up demand generated from the recession has the potential to generate growth, providing that consumers and businesses have the confidence to spend and reinvest in capital. Sullivan warns that such confidence, and therefore economic recovery, could be stalled by “Congressional drama”.
“American consumers love drama. Moreover, Congress knows how to create it, with more on the way when the debt ceiling talks resume in early in 2014,” said Sullivan. “Each time the political circus on Capitol Hill addresses extensions of the debt limit, budget approvals or the fiscal cliff, it harms the burgeoning economic momentum.”
In 2014, real construction spending is expected to increase by 1.3%. This will principally be driven by residential construction activity, while the commercial and institutional construction sectors will account for around 25% of growth.Portland cement consumption is anticipated to reach approximately 119 million t by 2018. This is around 3% below the past cyclical peak in 2005, indicating a recovery period of 14 years.
Adapted from press release by Louise Fordham
Read the article online at: https://www.worldcement.com/the-americas/22112013/pca_forecasts_cement_consumption_growth_in_2013_and_2014_444/