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BRE and Cardiff University develop emissions forecasting tool

Published by , Assistant Editor
World Cement,

Scientists from Cardiff University are developing a tool to forecast Wales’ greenhouse gas emissions over the next 30 years. The tool is being developed together with BRE, on behalf of the Welsh Government, who will use it to inform the setting of appropriate targets and carbon budgets for the entire country and quantify policies and proposals to be contained in the Low Carbon Delivery Plan. The project will be led by Dr Monjur Mourshed, who recently developed a similar 2050 energy, emissions and food pathways model for Bangladesh.

The tool will be used to inform policies aimed at reducing carbon emissions, in line with The Environment (Wales) Act 2016, which sets a long-term statutory emission reduction target of at least 80% in 2050,compared to a 1990 baseline.

The Cabinet Secretary for Environment and Rural Affairs, Lesley Griffiths AM, comments: “The legislative framework and long term ambition introduced by the Environment Act offers a tremendous opportunity to shape a low carbon future for Wales. The challenge for the Welsh Government is to develop policies and programmes of work which will drive deep decarbonisation across our society while delivering jobs and economic growth, vibrant places to live and work and wider benefits to the people of Wales. The development of a 2050 pathway tool for Wales will ensure our decisions are informed by a robust, current and relevant evidence base.”

These targets are part of a wider goal agreed by 195 national governments during COP21. The project will see the team engage with all sectors across Wales. This includes energy, transport, industry, business, agriculture, housing and waste.

Dr Mourshed said: “We are pleased to be selected to lead this important work, a milestone for the development of evidence-based, locally-relevant climate impact mitigation policies and actions in the UK and internationally. The industry-academia collaboration will result in several innovations in bottom-up modelling of energy demand considering socio-economic diversity and its evolution.”

BRE have over ten years’ experience of collaborating with Cardiff University and the BRE Trust currently funds the ‘Centre of Excellence in Building Systems and Informatics’ based at the University.

Andy Sutton, Associate Director with BRE added: “All at BRE are delighted to be involved with this project which will underpin governance and policy-making in Wales for many years to come, and ensure they have access to world-leading forecasting. The team at Cardiff University is already acknowledged as a leader in the field and the new tool for Wales will build upon their recent work in Bangladesh.”

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