Dry bulk shipping outlook

Demand

On 10 February 2016, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) hit 290. At that point, a bulk carrier regardless of its size, age and fuel-efficient qualities earned a time charter average of US$2417-2776 per day.

Whereas the three smaller segments have seen higher earnings since then, capesize earnings lost ground up until the end of March. By mid-April, the gap closed and capesizes are back on par with the pack. Despite the fact that earnings have doubled in those two months, they remain below OPEX levels for the largest part of the fleet.

Supply

Despite a record high volume of demolished dry bulk shipping capacity in the first three months of 2016, the total dry bulk f leet still grew. 16.7 million DWT of new capacity entered the f leet while 14 million DWT was sold for scrap. All in line with BIMCO’s forecast.

Not all of the dry bulk sub-segments saw an increase in fleet size. The capesize fleet, for instance, which has doubled over the past 6 and a half years, reduced in number (7 ships less) as well as capacity (-0.2%) in Q1-2016.

Outlook

For the coming months: April-July, BIMCO expects transported volumes to grow slowly - as they seasonally do - from the first quarter into the second. This ought to underpin the freight market.

Adapted from press release by Joseph Green

Read the article online at: https://www.worldcement.com/asia-pacific-rim/06052016/dry-bulk-shipping-outlook-50/