Imran Akram, IA Cement, summarises the Cement 2026 research report, which analyses the global demand trends and economic forces set to shape global cement markets in 2026.
The Cement 2026 research report, published by IA Cement in London, is a comprehensive document looking at expected trends in 2026. The report provides a detailed look at consumption prospects around the world, as well as a review of key risks, competitive pressures, and trading flows. It examines the world’s leading producers, and analyses the key topics of carbon emissions and the wide-ranging impact of the second Trump administration. This article presents a summary from the report, analysing 2026 demand prospects by region.
Global cement demand excluding China has recovered at an uneven pace in 2025. Tariff turmoil and delays to interest rate cuts have been key downward drivers, alongside falling cement demand in several large markets. Profit margins have improved, aided by stable pricing and lower input costs.
In 2026, a stronger pace of recovery is forecast for global cement consumption, in the range of 2.5 – 3% excluding China. GDP is described by the IMF as “subdued in a volatile environment”. Interest rate cuts are expected to further support housing demand, with economists projecting 75 – 100 basis point cuts in the benchmark US rate by the end of 2026. Emerging markets are generally outperforming their mature counterparts, with the strongest growth expected in Africa, the Middle East, and India. China is forecast to decline further. Recovery in the US is expected to be tepid.
Seaborne trading markets have had a mixed year in 2025. Export prices have risen sharply amid higher volumes, although Asian markets remain in surplus.
Lower interest rates are likely to support consumption in 2026, with reconstruction becoming an increasingly important theme. The pressure to export is expected to reduce in a number of major exporting countries, where domestic demand is improving. This should provide momentum for export prices to rise further.
Western Europe – modest recovery
Cement demand has bottomed out following sharp interest rate cuts. The turnaround is forecast to gather pace in 2026, with Northern countries recovering and Southern markets growing at a solid rate. Public works will be boosted by the lifting of the German debt brake and some defence funds being spent on infrastructure. High energy costs and a strong euro have made the manufacturing sector less competitive.
Germany is turning the corner slowly. The lifting of the debt brake is expected to release funds for infrastructure, but housing is still subdued and manufacturing is struggling. France and the UK are both grappling with unsustainable debt levels, which have resulted in political paralysis in France and higher taxes in the UK.
These factors are predicted to slow the pace of recovery in cement demand. The Italian market is underpinned by EU recovery funds, although the Superbonus scheme is winding down. Spanish cement has been the regional star performer in 2025, with strong housing growth expected to boost cement demand again in 2026. Nordic countries have struggled in recent years, but are set for a solid recovery across the board in 2026.
Eastern Europe – growth in central countries
Central European countries lost some momentum in 2025, but are expected to enjoy a solid year of growth in 2026 as interest rates fall. Poland is likely to deliver the fastest GDP growth of any major European country, while the construction sector is driving an economic recovery in the Czech Republic. Prospects in Hungary are more modest, but the market is underpinned by a myriad of housing programmes. The Russia-Ukraine conflict is ongoing, although there are now negotiations taking place. In the absence of a deal, demand is likely to fall in both markets due to high interest rates, acute labour shortages, and the collapse of foreign investment.
US – mild recovery
US cement has had another poor year in 2025. The majority of economic growth has come from IT, with other sectors effectively in recession. Immigration raids have worsened labour shortages in construction. Prospects for 2026 indicate a mild recovery in cement demand.
Tariff disruption is largely complete. Lower taxes will help boost demand. Interest rate cuts will support housing, office construction appears to have bottomed out, and data centre expansion is in full swing. Public works are more difficult to predict as the federal infrastructure bill is set to expire.
Latin America – improving trends
Growth in Latin America is forecast to pick up in 2026, as Mexico bounces back. Argentina required a US bailout during 2025, and the momentum in cement demand evaporated. A slight decline is envisaged in 2026 as economic growth slows sharply, although this forecast is made in a highly uncertain climate. Demand in Colombia is expected to increase at a moderate pace, held back by high interest rates and electoral uncertainty.
Brazilian consumption has been well supported by social housing. Rate cuts in 2026 are expected to boost private demand. Mexico faces a number of economic headwinds from the US. Tariffs impact Mexican exports and undermine its status as a nearshoring location, while remittances are under pressure due to the immigration crackdown.
Cement demand is predicted to outperform this backdrop. New public works, spending ahead of the World Cup and an expansion of social housing are expected to underpin 2026 consumption.
Middle East – solid demand
Regional demand is expected to increase by 2% in 2026, as strong growth in the GCC is offset by a decline in the large Iranian market. Oil prices are forecast to weaken further, creating an economic headwind. The GCC countries are generating solid growth in non-oil activity. The UAE construction market is firing on all cylinders, with strong housing demand, industrial expansion and new transport infrastructure projects.
Saudi cement demand has surged this year, with growth set to remain high in 2026. The country is likely to run budget deficits over the medium term, in an effort to front-load spending on transformative projects that diversify the economy away from oil. The market in Iran is forecast to struggle under the weight of additional sanctions.
Steady demand growth is expected in Türkiye, supported by urban renewal projects and lower inflation.
Africa – strong growth in the North
Cement demand growth is forecast to surpass 4% in both 2025 and 2026, driven by robust demand across North Africa. Solid growth is expected in Algeria on the back of high government spending. Demand is surging in Egypt, due to increased foreign investment and falling inflation. Producers face a complex outlook however, with the abolition of the quota system, restrictions on exports, rising costs, and the potential issuance of new licences.
A modest economic rebound is predicted in South Africa. Construction demand is a weak spot within the economy, and only a minor recovery is expected. Cement activity in Kenya has seen a significant revival after the government cleared almost US$500 million of unpaid bills to contractors, leading to the resumption of many stalled projects. Nigerian prospects are solid, as economic reforms lead to accelerated growth despite the backdrop of weak oil prices.
China – still struggling
The cement market in China continues to decline, with the downturn in real estate entering its fourth year. Recent data has shown an accelerating pace of deterioration, leading to speculation about a fresh stimulus package. The authorities have provided measured support to the sector, which has helped to stem but not reverse the decline. The core issue is weak confidence, which cannot be easily rectified. Public works spending has fallen slightly but is predicted to recover in 2026 as funds from special-purpose bonds are deployed. The fall in cement demand has disrupted the supply-demand balance, despite efforts to cap industry capacity. As a result, selling prices have declined further. Imports have largely ended since Q1 2025, and China has returned as a sizable exporter of cement and clinker.
India – steady growth
Cement consumption is projected to increase at a steady pace in 2026. Key drivers include lower interest rates, tax cuts, higher public works, and an increased spend on social housing. Urban housing has run into affordability constraints, although the outlook for rural consumption is positive after heavy monsoon rains. There is a solid pipeline of projects to support industrial and office construction. Cement prices have become more resilient following industry consolidation, but a wave of new capacity is imminent and could revive competitive pressures.
Asia – mixed picture
Regional cement demand has struggled in recent years. Many countries form an integral part of global value chains, and are therefore more exposed to US tariffs than elsewhere. Modest growth is anticipated in 2026 with a mixture of strong, stagnating, and declining markets. Vietnam has bounced back from the bursting of its real estate bubble. Cement demand is likely to close 2025 with a double-digit increase, led by higher public works. A further year of strong growth is projected for 2026.
Malaysia is expected to report solid cement demand growth in 2026, although the pace may slow slightly from recent years. Substantial data centre expansion, rapid urbanisation, and a pipeline of public works projects are expected to underpin demand. Pakistan is predicted to stage a strong recovery, driven by a halving of interest rates. Modest growth is expected in the Philippines, as gains from interest rate cuts are offset by growing uncertainty over a corruption scandal in flood control projects. Indonesia is projected to stabilise in 2026. Housing demand is likely to recover, but infrastructure priorities have changed under the new government. Thailand is expected to follow the same pattern as in previous years, with higher public works offsetting weak private demand. Bangladesh faces a difficult environment with political uncertainty, a high degree of non-performing loans, and many infrastructure projects being on hold. The Japanese market is struggling to satisfy demand due to labour shortages and the ban on overtime. The industry is working towards raising allowable limits on blended cement. Consumption in South Korea has dropped sharply due to a liquidity crunch at construction companies.
Conclusions
After a year of uneven recovery in 2025, demand growth is expected to heat up in 2026. Excluding China, demand is projected to increase in the 2.5 – 3% range. The main driver is a further drop in global interest rates, underpinning the housing sector. The turmoil created by US tariffs is – hopefully – largely behind us. Emerging markets are better placed for recovery than their mature counterparts, who are struggling to deal with high debt burdens. M&A is expected to pick up, boosted by lower interest rates. Seaborne trading volumes are expected to increase, helped by growing demand for reconstruction. Export prices are projected to rise further, as strong local demand reduces the pressure to export.
Note
The full report is priced at US$710 from IA Cement. More details available at www.iacement.com or by emailing: publications@iacement.com.
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